According to a personal and non-scientific analysis of the available big data, the two candidates going to the ballot will be Macron and Fillon.
Today it is allowed to publish the forecast….
Forecast data analysis will come soon..
As for the USA Presidential Forecast I used my algorithm with some (better: many) needed changes to adapt it to the Italian Referendum scenario.
Today, it is not possible to publish the results due to the Italian laws about referendum but I created a .png file that shows them. Then I obtained an on-line timestamp by http://www.originstamp.org/ and so I will be able to publish the .png forecast file tomorrow proving exactly when I created it.
Moreover, I published a Tweet with the file hash of that .png file in order to publicly prove it:
— Galigio (@galigio) December 3, 2016
Meanwhile, let me publish just some data about the main referendum hashtags trends on 11/15/2016 and today:
By definition, the forecast of the election results is something extremely difficult. A reliable forecast does not simply consider opinion polls but it should be able to also consider the impact of historical, social and economical variables combined with various factors such as the “possible behavior” or “psychological reactions” of voters.
There is always the real risk of not considering or underestimate some essential variables that will affect the decisions of voters just on the election day.
The graphs below are based on data from sites commonly considered as reliable and trustworthy but, in no case these charts can be regarded as scientific or reliable and are merely the result of a data processing described in a post published yesterday via Medium.
As empirically described by the Technical University of Munich through the paper “The mere number of tweets reflects voter preferences and comes close to traditional election polls”, the below analysis assumes the existence of a direct relationship between the number of tweets generated during an electoral contest by a candidate and the final election results.
To mitigate the supposed direct relationship between the number of tweets and the final electoral results I considered other data variables as described in the post published yesterday via Medium.